Leading in Ambiguity: Effective Decision Making for Leaders

Tell me if this resonates: you’re late in the quarter and you know your business line is not performing to expectations. The team is feeling it and signs of stress are showing. You are getting some subtle and not-so-subtle hints from your direct manager that things will need to change. But the structure you’re in feels like a slow-moving tanker ship and that nothing you do now will impact the results that are sure to come out in the near term. You’re paralyzed. Ever been there? Maybe you are there now.

The advice you might get from others is that great leaders make decisions with only 70-80% of the information they need. But you ask: how do I know if what I have is 70-80% and not 10%? Other advice you may get is: trust your gut. But you ask: my gut is saying I’ve got no idea!

What can be useful in these situations is focusing on how to make decisions in leadership under uncertainty. Not why to make a decision, but how.

Breaking Down Complex Decisions

First, the decision you need to make: is it a single decision or is it a cluster of decisions? When we experience paralysis around a decision, it likely means there are multiple decisions embedded in what we think is a single decision. A decision involving a general increase in performance involves a handful of other decisions that need to be made.

Get clear on what these other decisions are. Don’t know what those decisions might be? The initial decisions can be to decide on what decisions need to get made! Spread these decisions out to form a timeline of decisions that ultimately ladder up to the bigger decision.

This kind of decision-making framework is one of the most effective ways to reduce ambiguity. Leaders who apply it consistently are better prepared to make tough business decisions.

Choosing a Decision-Making Style

Second, identify what type of decision-making style it is time for. Is it urgent? Then an authoritarian style that has a single individual making a decision quickly could be the best method. Otherwise, consider a contributive style in which clear decision roles are established with a single decision maker.

This single decision maker needs to operate as a Chief Learner, ensuring that they are sufficiently learning whatever needs to be learned in order to make a decision and do so based upon a set of criteria.

This approach is a cornerstone of effective decision making in leadership, choosing not only the decision itself but also the method of arriving at it.

Which brings us to the third element…

The Role of Decision Criteria in Leadership

One of the most underutilized elements in effective decision making is criteria. The irony is that we always have criteria, but they are very rarely explicit.

When evaluating one decision over another, we often have a set of criteria by which we would choose. Sometimes the implicit and unintentional criterion is “do I like this in the moment?” or “would my boss like it?”.

 We can do a better job of making those criteria relevant for the outcome we’d like to achieve (unless of course, pleasing a boss is the sole outcome you’d like to achieve!).

When we expose decision criteria to others, we are able to create a shared path forward in establishing the criteria by which we together would evaluate options. Ultimately, that single decision maker makes the call on what the criteria are, but remember that decision maker is also operating from a place of learning, so others may have a strong influence.

Putting It Into Practice

So you’ve got some nerves around the reporting for your last quarter’s performance. What decision is it time for now? Unpack the cluster of decisions, identify the style in which you would make the first decision, and make the criteria for that decision explicit.

You’ll find that even being in an ambiguous position without all the answers, you’ll feel more confident you can address your circumstances head on. That is the essence of leading in ambiguity with effective decision making.

About The Author

Patrick Kennedy
Consultant

Patrick’s work begins with a question: what if this conversation could unlock clarity? With deep roots in motivational psychology and a knack for surfacing unseen connections, he supports leaders and teams in building authentic, effective ways of working. From early-stage ventures to Fortune 500s, for the past 15 years he has helped organizations align on purpose, desired outcomes, and the human side of change both as a business leader and as a consultant. Outside of work you may find him huddled up with his family watching a movie in an Alamo Drafthouse Cinema or reading or writing a screenplay. Patrick holds graduate degrees from Columbia University and McCombs School of Business at UT Austin. Patrick is based in Austin, Texas.